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Journal Cover CESifo Economic Studies
  [SJR: 0.501]   [H-I: 19]   [17 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1610-241X - ISSN (Online) 1612-7501
   Published by Oxford University Press Homepage  [372 journals]
  • Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the
           Empirical Evidence
    • Authors: Berlemann M; Steinhardt M.
      Pages: 353 - 385
      Abstract: Climate-induced migration is one of the most hotly debated topics in the current discourse on global warming and its consequences. There is a burgeoning field in economics and other social sciences linking climatic factors or climate-related natural disasters to migration. Existent empirical studies use different measures to quantify migration flows and climatic factors and apply a variety of methodologies to disparate data sets and samples of countries. Our review article aims to provide a unifying perspective over this complex field by structuring the literature and summarizing the empirical findings. (JEL codes: F22, J11, J61, O13, O15, Q54, R23)
      PubDate: 2017-11-24
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx019
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
  • Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux
    • Authors: Beine M; Parsons C.
      Pages: 386 - 402
      Abstract: In this article, we revisit the issue of environmental change as a potential determinant of international migration, thereby providing an extension of our earlier paper. In contrast to Beine and Parsons (2015, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117, 723–767) and in light of recent empirical contributions, we adopt an alternative identification strategy in which we only include fixed effects together with our measures of climatic change to quantify the net partial effect of climatic change on bilateral migration. Again drawing on panel data from 1960 to 2000, we further exploit the dyadic dimension of our data to highlight the importance of neighbouring countries and former colonial powers in determining the direction of climate-induced emigration. Our baseline results suggest that climatic shocks affect individuals’ financial constraints more than their desire to move. Our key findings are that natural disasters tend to deter emigration but importantly spur emigration to neighbouring countries. For middle-income origins, natural disasters, while deterring migration, foster emigration to former colonial powers. (JEL codes: F22, J61)
      PubDate: 2017-10-26
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx017
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
  • To Leave or Not to Leave' Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific
    • Authors: Noy I.
      Pages: 403 - 420
      Abstract: Observers predict that climate change will lead to massive migrations. Yet, most of the empirical micro- and macro-research on the link between climate change and migration fails to find much evidence of this migration happening. We focus on Tuvalu, a small South Pacific atoll nation that can serve as the canary in the mine for climate change research. If migration driven by climate change is not happening, Tuvalu may explain why. One plausible reason is the desire by Tuvaluans to Voice. ‘Voicing’, a concept we borrow from Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, is the advocacy of expressing wish for change. We argue that Tuvaluans have decided that their preferred policy is to stay and Voice. This present choice to Voice may explain why the evidence on climate-induced migration is so fragile. Tuvalu may be using Voice to attempt to avert dire outcomes, or to strengthen its bargaining position for the discussions about compensation. The risk may be that the equilibrium choice between Voice and Exit is unstable and that the transition from one strategy to the other may be abrupt—in response to a catastrophic disaster. Advance planning and funding for climate-induced migration are therefore necessary through the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage.
      PubDate: 2017-05-16
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx004
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
  • Climate Change and Migration: A Dynamic Model
    • Authors: Mason C.
      Pages: 421 - 444
      Abstract: In this article I explore a model where citizens of a country vulnerable to damages from climate change may migrate to a second country, from which a steady stream of greenhouse gases occur. If this migration imposes costs on the emitting country, then migration induces a sort of pseudo carbon tax via political economic forces. This pseudo tax creates an incentive for the country receiving the flow of immigrants to lower its emissions, offering an offset to the costs incurred as a result of climate change. I show that the long-run carbon stock, and the entire time path of production (and hence emissions), is smaller in the presence of migration. I discuss various comparative dynamics, for both the path of production and the long-run atmospheric carbon stock (JEL codes: F22, Q54, C61).
      PubDate: 2017-05-03
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx003
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
  • Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration' *
    • Authors: Gröschl J; Steinwachs T.
      Pages: 445 - 480
      Abstract: The estimated amount of people affected by natural hazards stands at a staggering number of about 243 million people per year. While not all of the affected move across borders, international migration potentially provides an adaptation mechanism to natural hazards. The aim of this article is to assess whether natural hazards induce international migration from a macro perspective. We construct a stylized theoretical gravity model of migration that includes hazards as random shocks. To estimate this model, we deploy exogenous data on geological anzd meteorological hazards from 1980 to 2010. We combine these data with the World Bank’s Global Bilateral Migration Database. Overall, our results suggest little evidence that natural hazards affect medium- to long-run international migration. However, considering heterogeneity across income groups, we find that particularly middle-income countries experience significant push and pull effects on migration from natural hazards. (JEL codes: F22, O15, Q54).
      PubDate: 2017-06-12
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx005
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
  • Natural Disasters and Poverty Reduction: Do Remittances Matter'
    • Authors: Mbaye L; Drabo A.
      Pages: 481 - 499
      Abstract: Do private funds help mitigate poverty in the context of natural disasters' This article aims to answer this question by looking at the joined effect of migrants’ transfers and natural disasters on poverty level in developing countries. Using panel data from developing countries over the period 1984–2010 and a fixed effects model, our results show that private mechanisms, such as remittances, significantly alleviate poverty when natural disasters occur in these countries. Put differently, we find that the effect of remittances on poverty is all the more important when they are received in countries experiencing natural disasters. Our results are confirmed by various robustness tests to mitigate the endogeneity issues.
      PubDate: 2017-10-17
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx016
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
  • Climate-induced International Migration and Conflicts
    • Authors: Cattaneo C; Bosetti V.
      Pages: 500 - 528
      Abstract: Population movements will help people cope with the impacts of climate change. However, large-scale displacements may also produce security risks for receiving areas. If climate change intensifies the process of out-migration, destination countries may face waves of migrants so large and fast that integration becomes increasingly hard. The objective of this article is to empirically estimate if the inflows of climate-induced migrants increase the risk of conflicts in receiving areas. Using data from 1960 to 2000, we show that climate-induced migrants are not an additional determinant of civil conflicts and civil wars in receiving areas. (JEL Codes: Q54, F22, Q34, H56).
      PubDate: 2017-09-08
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx010
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
  • Out-migration from Coastal Areas in Ghana and Indonesia—the Role of
           Environmental Factors
    • Authors: Goldbach C.
      Pages: 529 - 559
      Abstract: Projections of climatic and environmental changes have generated a growing effort to assess their implications for human migration. Because migration is always a multicausal phenomenon, this study aims to disentangle the impact of environmental factors from other migration-inducing factors to shed some light on the complex relationship between the environment and migration. Thus, we conducted quantitative microlevel studies in low-lying communities in two high-mobility countries—Ghana and Indonesia—that are particularly exposed to coastal hazards like erosion, land subsidence, storm surges and an increasing sea level, and are prone to flooding on a regular basis. Different measures of environmental threats were collected, ranging from individual perceptions over the household’s distance to the coast to expert opinions. We analyzed the relationships using logistic regressions and controlled for contextual factors on multiple levels. No statistically significant direct impacts of slow-onset environmental events on migration decisions could be detected. Perceptions of storms, a clearly sudden-onset event, however, were found to be significantly linked to out-migration decisions in Ghana. These findings support the hypothesis that environmental factors are generally not a primary cause of migration, and their effects are rather context specific—especially for slow-onset changes. (JEL codes: R23, O15, Q54.)
      PubDate: 2017-08-01
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx007
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
  • Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India
    • Authors: Dallmann I; Millock K.
      Pages: 560 - 594
      Abstract: We match climate data to migration data from the 1991 and 2001 Indian Censuses to investigate the impact of climate variability on internal migration. The article makes four contributions to the existing literature on macro-level migration flows. First, use of census data allows us to test and compare the effect on migration of climatic factors prior to migration. Second, we introduce relevant meteorological indicators of climate variability, to measure the frequency, duration, and magnitude of drought and excess precipitation based on the Standardized Precipitation Index. Third, we estimate the total effect (direct and indirect effects) of climate variability on bilateral migration rates. Fourth, we examine three possible channels through which climate variability might induce migration: average income, agriculture, and urbanization. The estimation results show that drought frequency in the origin state increases inter-state migration in India. This effect is stronger in agricultural states, and in such states the magnitude of drought also increases inter-state migration significantly. Drought frequency has the strongest effect on rural–rural inter-state migration. (JEL codes: O15, Q54).
      PubDate: 2017-09-27
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx014
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 4 (2017)
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