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  Subjects -> BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS (Total: 3097 journals)
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    - BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS (1142 journals)
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BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS (1142 journals)

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Journal Cover CESifo Economic Studies
  [SJR: 0.501]   [H-I: 19]   [16 followers]  Follow
    
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1610-241X - ISSN (Online) 1612-7501
   Published by Oxford University Press Homepage  [370 journals]
  • Specialization Patterns, GDP Correlations, and External Balances
    • Authors: Cuñat A; Zymek R.
      First page: 141
      Abstract: This article provides evidence of a link between specialization patterns—in intermediate inputs or final goods—and business cycle correlations: countries with a similar intermediate goods content of exports tend to have more correlated gross domestic product fluctuations and external balances. We produce a model that replicates these facts. A productivity shock in a large country (‘the U.S.’) has a smaller effect on the terms of trade of countries that share its specialization, while being shared fully with countries specialized in the other type of good through a terms-of-trade effect. In the presence of complete asset markets, the trade balance reflects the flow of insurance payments. All countries who benefit little from the shock in the large country will have correlated, negative net exports. The trade balances of all other countries will jointly move in the opposite direction.
      PubDate: 2017-02-07
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifw019
       
  • The Modality of Fiscal Consolidation and Current Account Adjustment
    • Authors: Adam A; Moutos T.
      First page: 162
      Abstract: In this article, we argue that supply-side adjustments (i.e. the reallocation of productive resources between the traded and non-traded sectors) can be an important determinant of the output costs of current account adjustment. The argument relies on the fact that tax evasion is more prevalent in the non-traded sector, which is dominated by services and the self-employed. Heavy reliance on tax-based fiscal consolidations induces a reallocation of economic activity towards the non-traded sector, thus requiring a larger decline in domestic absorption (and output) per unit of improvement in the current account balance. Using International Monetary Fund data for the period 1980–2011, we find that budget consolidations that relied more on tax increases than on spending decreases were associated with larger output costs per unit of current account improvement.
      PubDate: 2017-02-08
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifw020
       
  • Currency Flows and Currency Crises
    • Authors: Müller-Plantenberg NA.
      First page: 182
      Abstract: According to the most common understanding, currency crises are always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Based on a formal theoretical model and ample empirical evidence, this article argues instead that currency crises are always and everywhere about external imbalances. They are usually preceded by booms in consumption, investment, and output. Since part of the added spending falls on imports, output and saving rise less than investment, pushing the current account into deficit. The exchange rate depends on the gap between cumulative capital inflows and the cumulative current account deficit. When the boom starts, this gap is positive and the central bank can hoard reserves and sterilize capital inflows. Yet later, as optimism fades, the gap inevitably turns negative, leading to the depletion of reserves and the collapse of the exchange rate. Panic can lead to precipitous speculative attacks. (JEL codes: F31, F32, F34, G01, G11.)
      PubDate: 2017-02-15
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifw021
       
  • A European Disease? Non-tradable Inflation and Real Interest Rate
           Divergence
    • Authors: Piton S.
      First page: 210
      Abstract: This article studies the contribution of real interest rate divergence to the dynamics of the relative price of non-tradables within Europe. Extending the traditional Balassa–Samueslon effect, it shows that the real interest rate fall in the Euro area (EA) periphery following the single currency’s inception induced an increase in the relative price of non-tradable goods. Using a new data set, it documents the dynamics of the tradable and the non-tradable sectors over 1995–2013 and the expansion of the non-tradable sector in the periphery before the crisis. It then carries out an econometric estimation for 11 EA countries over 1995–2013 and quantifies the contribution of the pure Balassa–Samuelson effect and the impact of the interest rate on non-tradable relative prices. Diverging evolution in the interest rate impacted greatly the evolution of non-tradable relative prices within the EA over the period. In Greece, the fall in the real interest rate over 1995–2008 could explain almost half of the non-tradable price increase relative to the EA average, while in Germany the increase in the real interest rate might have contributed up to 7% of the decrease of the non-tradable price relative to the average of the EA. (JEL codes: F41, F45, E43).
      PubDate: 2017-02-15
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifw018
       
  • Stabilization and Rebalancing with Fiscal or Monetary Devaluation: a
           Model-Based Comparison
    • Authors: Vogel L.
      First page: 235
      Abstract: The article uses a small open economy version of the macroeconomic general-equilibrium model QUEST to compare fiscal and nominal exchange rate (EXR) devaluation with respect to their impact on economic activity and the current account. In particular, the article investigates quantitatively to which extent fiscal devaluation mimics nominal EXR adjustment and mitigates the output loss associated with demand rebalancing and external adjustment by shifting adjustment from domestic demand contraction to export growth. Fiscal and monetary devaluation support external adjustment and mitigate its impact on economic activity in the presence of price and wage rigidities. The quantitative impact of a tax shift from labour to consumption as the standard example of fiscal devaluation remains very moderate, however (JEL codes: E52, F41, F47).
      PubDate: 2017-01-12
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifw016
       
 
 
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