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Journal Cover CESifo Economic Studies
  [SJR: 0.501]   [H-I: 19]   [16 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1610-241X - ISSN (Online) 1612-7501
   Published by Oxford University Press Homepage  [370 journals]
  • Vocational vs. General Education and Employment over the Life Cycle: New
           Evidence from PIAAC
    • Authors: Hampf F; Woessmann L.
      Pages: 255 - 269
      Abstract: AbstractIt has been argued that vocational education facilitates the school-to-work transition but reduces later adaptability to changing environments. Using the recent international data of the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), we confirm such a trade-off over the life cycle in a difference-in-differences model that compares employment rates across education type and age. An initial employment advantage of individuals with vocational compared to general education turns into a disadvantage later in life. Results are strongest in apprenticeship countries that provide the highest intensity of industry-based vocational education. (JEL codes: J24, J64, I20)
      PubDate: 2017-09-08
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx012
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 3 (2017)
  • Export Hysteresis, Capacity Constraints, and Uncertainty: A Smooth
           Transition Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries
    • Authors: Belke A; Wagemester J.
      Pages: 270 - 294
      Abstract: AbstractWe argue that, under certain conditions described by a sunk cost hysteresis model, firms consider exports as a substitute for domestic demand. This is valid also on the macroeconomic level where the switch from the domestic market to the export market and vice versa takes place in a smooth manner. Areas of weak reaction of exports to changes in domestic demand are widened by uncertainty. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests domestic demand and capacity constraints as additional variables for export equations. We apply the exponential and logistic variant of a smooth transition regression model and find that domestic demand developments and uncertainty are relevant for short-run export dynamics particularly during more extreme stages of the business cycle. A substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales can most clearly be found for France, Greece, and Ireland (exponential smooth transition regression (ESTR) model) and France, Portugal, and Italy (logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model), providing evidence of the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade between the member states of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). What is more, our empirical results are robust to the inclusion of a variable measuring European policy uncertainty. In some cases (Italy, Greece, and Portugal) the results underscore the empirical validity of the export hysteresis under uncertainty model. (JEL codes: F14, C22, C50, C51, F10).
      PubDate: 2017-09-23
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx015
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 3 (2017)
  • Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers'
    • Authors: Botev J; Mourougane A.
      Pages: 295 - 316
      Abstract: AbstractThis article derives time-varying threshold multipliers for G7 countries and the euro area, above which consolidation will be self-defeating (that is, leading to an increase rather than a decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio). Simulations suggest that these thresholds have declined since the financial crisis. In addition to the length of the consolidation period, and the pace of consolidation, the initial level of public debt would be the main factor affecting these multipliers. Results are robust to alternative calibration of the model and suggest that it may be advisable to delay consolidation in countries where the recovery is still fragile, as the conditions for fiscal consolidation not to be self-defeating are stricter than those prevailing in the pre-crisis period. Consolidation packages should also rely on measures where multipliers are the lowest to ensure that threshold multipliers are not exceeded (JEL codes: C22, E60, H6).
      PubDate: 2017-04-17
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx002
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 3 (2017)
  • Do Parties Punish MPs for Voting Against the Party Line'
    • Authors: Kauder B; Potrafke N, Riem M.
      Pages: 317 - 332
      Abstract: AbstractWe examine whether parties punish politicians who vote against the party line in roll-call votes. Using data of German members of parliament (MPs) over the legislative period 2009–2013, we take into account that the effect of punishment differs along the list of candidates because a candidate is punished more when he loses positions at the threshold of promising list positions. The data set includes the voting behavior of 257 MPs in 218 roll-call votes. Our results do not show that parties account for the voting behavior by punishing politicians who have voted against the party line. Political parties may attract different groups of voters by tolerating politicians who vote according to their own credo. Qualities other than the voting behavior seem to matter to political parties when nominating candidates. (JEL codes: D72, D78, P16)
      PubDate: 2017-07-20
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx006
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 3 (2017)
  • Job satisfaction and compensating wage differentials: Evidence from Russia
    • Authors: Bartolucci F; Bruno G, Demidova O, et al.
      Pages: 333 - 351
      Abstract: AbstractThis article is focused on the analysis of the determinants of job satisfaction of Russian workers through the estimation of ordered logit models with individual fixed effects on a panel data set extracted from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. The real wage results positively associated with job satisfaction on all samples considered, after controlling for several time-varying controls aimed at picking up time-varying human capital, preferences, and non-instantaneous equilibrium adjustments. As long as the included controls capture all the heterogeneous trends in individual wages, we may interpret this result as a possible failure of the theory of compensating wage differentials in the Russian labour market. (JEL codes: J28, J81)
      PubDate: 2017-09-23
      DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx011
      Issue No: Vol. 63, No. 3 (2017)
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